Six consecutive days of back-and-forth attacks between the United States and Iran threaten to pull the region back into a total war and cast serious doubt about an interim deal reached last month meant to achieve a permanent peace. The attacks have been accompanied by escalating rhetoric from both sides, as the US enforced its naval blockade and Iran said it had shut the strait of Hormuz, which before the conflict handled about a fifth of global oil and gas exports.

In the face of Tehran's determination to control the strategic waterway as a critical leverage of deterrence, US President Donald Trump has declared the end of the ceasefire, a renewed blockade of Iranian ports, and a return to war to degrade Iran's defensive capabilities further and wrest control of the strait. Given this impasse, a potential end to the conflict is nowhere in sight. This will only bring more economic pain to both protagonists, the region and the world.

Before the US and Israel started attacking Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz was not in dispute. It was open to free shipping, allowing for the daily flow of 20% of the world's supply of oil and liquified natural gas, exported from the Persian Gulf countries. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) closed the chokepoint as part of its response to the US-Israeli military campaign, causing worldwide energy shortages and threatening a global economic crisis.

Tehran then set up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to manage the waterway, potentially along with Oman on the southern side of the strait. It also signalled the imposition of a management toll on ships passing through the waterway. The Trump administration rejected this move, but had no plan on how to deal with it - or end the war. The Trump administration is now pursuing a policy - imposing a toll on ships in the Strait of Hormuz - that runs counter to what it had previously articulated. Just weeks ago, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the strait was an international waterway and must be free of any toll.

Trump has not fully explained how the US would collect these tolls, how much the operation would cost, or how the IRGC would be deterred from targeting ships to prevent their passage. The danger of Trump's new plan is that it could make the conflict much longer and worse than it was before, with more widespread consequences. And it is unlikely to serve the US or the world well, geopolitically and economically.